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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.19+5.53vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.14vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.63+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.41+1.97vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+1.61vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.36-2.46vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32-3.38vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63+0.28vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-2.87vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.10-0.18vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.99vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.32vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.37-1.84vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.78vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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5.25Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.97University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.61George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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3.54Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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3.62Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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8.28Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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9.82Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.16SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.22Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.04Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Emily Doble | 20.4% | 18.9% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.2% | 18.8% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 3.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 16.5% | 29.7% | 15.6% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 14.2% | 68.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.