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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.46+5.09vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.69+3.48vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University1.31+3.58vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+1.92vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+1.89vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.59-0.30vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00-2.40vs Predicted
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8Florida State University2.12-3.72vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.32vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.23+0.60vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.83-3.21vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire0.35-2.50vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.80-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.09Roger Williams University1.460.1%1st Place
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5.48Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.58Salve Regina University1.310.1%1st Place
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5.92Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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5.7Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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4.6Northeastern University2.000.2%1st Place
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4.28Florida State University2.120.2%1st Place
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9.32SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.230.0%1st Place
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7.79University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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9.5University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
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8.21University of Rhode Island0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Crager | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| David Vinogradov | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 15.1% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Foley | 16.3% | 16.3% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| Tiernan O'Kane | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 18.4% | 39.7% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 4.6% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 5.2% |
| Sam Harris | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| Pierson Falk | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.