← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Crager 8.5% 9.0% 10.2% 8.4% 9.0% 9.4% 9.3% 9.8% 7.9% 7.5% 5.7% 3.9% 1.4%
Gus Macaulay 10.8% 10.6% 11.1% 10.6% 9.7% 9.8% 9.2% 7.8% 7.6% 6.4% 3.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Olivia Lowthian 6.4% 8.7% 7.3% 8.4% 8.8% 9.5% 8.0% 10.4% 9.3% 9.6% 6.0% 5.8% 1.8%
Everett Botwinick 9.7% 9.1% 9.6% 9.6% 8.6% 9.1% 11.1% 8.5% 8.0% 6.6% 5.9% 3.6% 0.6%
David Vinogradov 8.0% 5.5% 6.9% 8.1% 7.7% 8.6% 8.1% 9.2% 11.3% 8.9% 8.6% 6.7% 2.4%
Skylor Sweet 10.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.7% 9.6% 9.7% 7.7% 6.9% 6.5% 5.5% 2.7% 1.1%
Adrian Winkelman 15.1% 14.2% 12.9% 12.0% 10.1% 9.8% 7.8% 6.3% 5.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Peter Foley 16.3% 16.3% 12.3% 12.7% 11.3% 9.4% 8.9% 5.7% 3.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Nathaniel Hartwell 2.7% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.7% 4.4% 5.5% 5.7% 7.5% 10.8% 13.9% 16.3% 18.8%
Tiernan O'Kane 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.8% 3.2% 4.1% 5.2% 6.9% 9.4% 18.4% 39.7%
Gavin Sanborn 4.6% 4.0% 7.4% 4.9% 7.6% 6.2% 7.0% 10.3% 10.1% 10.3% 11.9% 10.5% 5.2%
Sam Harris 2.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.5% 4.4% 5.3% 4.8% 6.3% 6.5% 9.9% 13.6% 18.7% 19.3%
Pierson Falk 3.4% 4.2% 4.1% 5.6% 7.4% 6.1% 7.4% 8.2% 10.9% 11.2% 12.7% 10.4% 8.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.