Race 10A

vietor

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Pierson Falk 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 5.8% 6.8% 8.0% 6.3% 8.2% 8.6% 12.4% 12.4% 11.4% 7.2%
Adrian Winkelman 14.5% 14.0% 13.7% 13.1% 10.3% 8.8% 7.6% 5.8% 5.7% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2%
David Vinogradov 5.3% 6.2% 7.0% 8.1% 6.7% 10.1% 6.8% 10.2% 9.3% 9.1% 10.7% 7.3% 3.2%
Everett Botwinick 8.8% 8.8% 10.6% 11.0% 7.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.5% 7.0% 7.6% 5.3% 3.6% 1.0%
Peter Foley 18.6% 16.4% 14.7% 10.1% 10.9% 8.2% 7.4% 4.7% 4.1% 2.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 8.3% 7.3% 7.9% 8.8% 7.9% 8.3% 9.9% 10.7% 9.1% 7.4% 7.0% 5.3% 2.1%
Tiernan O'Kane 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.3% 3.5% 4.7% 6.5% 5.4% 9.3% 16.3% 40.8%
Gus Macaulay 11.7% 11.2% 10.2% 10.0% 9.5% 10.8% 11.1% 7.7% 6.5% 5.9% 3.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Jack Crager 8.8% 7.6% 8.9% 9.1% 10.8% 10.2% 8.7% 7.2% 7.8% 9.0% 6.2% 3.8% 1.9%
Nathaniel Hartwell 3.0% 3.5% 3.8% 2.7% 4.2% 4.5% 5.4% 7.2% 9.2% 8.3% 11.4% 17.8% 19.0%
Sam Harris 2.3% 3.5% 2.7% 4.5% 5.4% 4.3% 5.2% 7.4% 7.9% 11.8% 13.9% 15.0% 16.1%
Skylor Sweet 9.2% 9.9% 9.9% 9.5% 9.6% 8.6% 10.3% 8.7% 8.8% 5.4% 5.0% 4.4% 0.7%
Gavin Sanborn 3.2% 5.2% 4.6% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 7.7% 9.0% 9.5% 11.4% 11.9% 11.9% 7.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.