Race 11A

vietor

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Duncan Craine 8.8% 8.8% 9.3% 8.9% 10.0% 8.8% 8.6% 9.7% 8.1% 7.7% 6.3% 3.2% 1.8%
Adrian Winkelman 14.8% 14.9% 13.2% 12.4% 9.9% 10.3% 7.1% 7.1% 5.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5%
Gus Macaulay 10.2% 10.3% 12.2% 10.7% 9.1% 9.6% 9.4% 9.5% 7.7% 5.3% 3.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Olivia Lowthian 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 8.6% 10.3% 9.8% 7.7% 9.9% 8.1% 9.3% 8.3% 3.3% 2.7%
Nathaniel Hartwell 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% 6.6% 9.9% 9.1% 12.0% 16.0% 17.3%
Everett Botwinick 9.9% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 9.7% 9.9% 10.6% 6.9% 7.7% 7.9% 4.3% 3.6% 1.0%
Gavin Sanborn 5.5% 4.3% 6.2% 6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.5% 9.7% 9.4% 9.7% 11.2% 11.6% 6.6%
Pierson Falk 3.6% 6.2% 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 5.5% 9.2% 7.9% 10.6% 10.8% 11.1% 11.6% 7.3%
Jack Crager 8.8% 8.1% 9.0% 9.5% 9.7% 9.9% 8.8% 8.6% 8.1% 6.9% 6.6% 4.2% 1.8%
Peter Foley 18.6% 14.7% 14.3% 11.9% 9.5% 8.9% 7.4% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3%
Tiernan O'Kane 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 3.1% 3.6% 3.4% 4.4% 5.0% 8.8% 10.5% 15.9% 38.7%
Sam Harris 2.2% 3.6% 2.3% 3.0% 4.8% 5.5% 6.2% 5.3% 7.0% 8.2% 13.3% 20.3% 18.3%
David Vinogradov 5.9% 7.0% 6.1% 7.9% 7.5% 7.2% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% 10.8% 9.7% 6.4% 3.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.