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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+4.37vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.23+2.93vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.54+1.17vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.81+1.87vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University0.85+0.79vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.23-3.29vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University-1.02+4.53vs Predicted
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8Florida Institute of Technology-0.53+1.95vs Predicted
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9Clemson University-0.82+1.91vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida-0.19-0.93vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.11-2.93vs Predicted
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12University of Central Florida-1.93+2.44vs Predicted
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13University of South Carolina-0.73-2.47vs Predicted
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14University of North Carolina-0.51-4.29vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.00-0.63vs Predicted
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16Florida State University-2.39-0.62vs Predicted
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18The Citadel-2.07-3.35vs Predicted
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19Embry-Riddle University-1.76-5.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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4.93San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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4.17North Carolina State University1.540.1%1st Place
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5.87Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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5.79Jacksonville University0.850.1%1st Place
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2.71Roger Williams University2.230.3%1st Place
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11.53Christopher Newport University-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.95Florida Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
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10.91Clemson University-0.820.0%1st Place
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9.07University of South Florida-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.07University of Michigan0.110.0%1st Place
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14.44University of Central Florida-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.53University of South Carolina-0.730.0%1st Place
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9.71University of North Carolina-0.510.0%1st Place
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14.37University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.000.0%1st Place
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15.38Florida State University-2.390.0%1st Place
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14.65The Citadel-2.070.0%1st Place
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13.56Embry-Riddle University-1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 9.8% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 9.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Usher | 13.3% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 31.4% | 25.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Roou | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| William Avery | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Garrett Floerchinger | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ted Sherman | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Rain Hong | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| Andrew Ettlemyer | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Abbi Barnette | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| Patrick Parker | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 18.4% | 32.1% |
| Damian Uzonwanne | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.