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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.22+5.47vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.52+3.38vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+4.37vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.68+1.08vs Predicted
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5Boston College0.16+5.18vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+5.18vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.72+1.26vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.92-0.43vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.56-3.64vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.68-1.52vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-2.04vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.57-2.90vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-6.93vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.14-3.81vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.10-4.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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5.38Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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7.37St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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5.08College of Charleston1.680.1%1st Place
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10.18Boston College0.160.0%1st Place
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11.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.26Boston University0.720.1%1st Place
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7.57Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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5.36University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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8.48Tufts University0.680.1%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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9.1University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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6.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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10.19University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 12.1% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Ashley Alfortish | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kennedy Laureigh | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 24.4% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| Kailey Warrior | 11.7% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% |
| Meara Conley | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
| Karya Basaraner | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.2% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 15.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.