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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.85+3.11vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+6.46vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.63+1.61vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.21+1.88vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.58vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.07+0.35vs Predicted
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7University of Delaware-1.57+3.95vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.40-0.30vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.03-2.46vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-1.22vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-1.19-0.95vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07-5.65vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.73-4.02vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-2.54-0.96vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-3.36-0.96vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.54-11.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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8.46Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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4.61Columbia University0.630.2%1st Place
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5.88Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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5.58SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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10.95University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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7.7William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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6.54Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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8.78SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.05Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.98Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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13.04Rutgers University-2.540.0%1st Place
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14.04U. S. Military Academy-3.360.0%1st Place
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4.94Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Atherton | 17.5% | 17.6% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 15.2% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 23.0% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Vaughn Lynch | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 37.6% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| McCaslin Miles | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 61.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 12.8% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.