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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.54+3.90vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.63+2.62vs Predicted
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3University of Delaware-1.57+7.96vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.37+1.44vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.85-0.79vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University-0.03+0.64vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.72+1.61vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.21-2.06vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.40-1.33vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.07-3.65vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-3.36+3.05vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.73-3.02vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-4.27vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.07-7.65vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.19-5.02vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-2.54-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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4.62Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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10.96University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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5.44SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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4.21Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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6.64Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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8.61SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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5.94Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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7.67William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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14.05U. S. Military Academy-3.360.0%1st Place
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8.98Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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8.73Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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9.98Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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12.91Rutgers University-2.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 12.3% | 15.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 14.1% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 21.9% | 18.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 18.5% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 5.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 10.5% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McCaslin Miles | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 65.6% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Vaughn Lynch | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 14.1% | 37.7% | 24.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.