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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University0.63+3.72vs Predicted
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2Penn State University0.54+2.84vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.40+4.67vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.85+0.14vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.07+1.35vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.21-0.12vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.72+1.56vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.37-2.54vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-1.19+1.04vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-1.35vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.57-0.01vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-2.34+0.74vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.07-6.65vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.73-5.10vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.03-8.43vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-4.01-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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4.84Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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7.67William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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4.14Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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5.88Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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8.56SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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5.46SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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10.04Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.65Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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12.74Rutgers University-2.340.0%1st Place
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6.35Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.9Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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6.57Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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14.48U. S. Military Academy-4.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Frost | 13.8% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 12.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 17.8% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 22.3% | 18.9% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Karolina Debniak | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 16.2% | 45.9% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 9.4% | 80.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.