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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.54+3.89vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.85+2.06vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.37+2.33vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.21+1.86vs Predicted
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5William and Mary-0.40+2.76vs Predicted
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6University of Delaware-1.57+5.03vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.72+1.63vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-1.19+2.03vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.63-4.36vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.07-3.63vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.38vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07-5.63vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.03-6.16vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.73-5.10vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-2.34-2.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-4.01-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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4.06Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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5.33SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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5.86Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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7.76William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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8.63SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.03Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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4.64Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.37Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.62Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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6.37Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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6.84Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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8.9Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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12.55Rutgers University-2.340.0%1st Place
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14.49U. S. Military Academy-4.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 18.7% | 17.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 23.5% | 19.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 14.2% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Karolina Debniak | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 43.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 10.1% | 79.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.