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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University0.63+3.68vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University-0.03+4.46vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.37+2.39vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.73+4.71vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+1.00vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+2.59vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.54-2.05vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.40-0.25vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.85-4.90vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.07-3.57vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.57-0.02vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-2.54+1.14vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-1.19-2.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-3.36+0.05vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.07-8.57vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-7.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.46Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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5.39SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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8.71Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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6.0Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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8.59Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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4.95Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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7.75William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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4.1Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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6.43Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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13.14Rutgers University-2.540.0%1st Place
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10.15Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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14.05U. S. Military Academy-3.360.0%1st Place
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6.43Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.61SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Frost | 14.8% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 13.9% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 18.2% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 23.0% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Vaughn Lynch | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 36.0% | 28.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 17.3% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| McCaslin Miles | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 21.6% | 60.9% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.