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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.37+4.37vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.07+4.09vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.40+4.63vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University-0.03+2.57vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+0.97vs Predicted
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6Drexel University-1.19+4.04vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.73+1.66vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63-3.26vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-0.35vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.07-3.91vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.57+0.04vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-3.41vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-2.34-0.27vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.85-9.60vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-4.01-0.47vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.54-11.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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6.09Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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7.63William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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6.57Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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5.97Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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10.04Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.66Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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4.74Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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8.65SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.09Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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11.04University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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8.59Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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12.73Rutgers University-2.340.0%1st Place
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4.4Christopher Newport University0.850.1%1st Place
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14.53U. S. Military Academy-4.010.0%1st Place
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5.0Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 17.2% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 24.1% | 18.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Karolina Debniak | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 46.6% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 14.0% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 10.1% | 81.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.