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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.07+5.18vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.73+6.55vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.40+4.66vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University-0.03+2.58vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+1.02vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.85-1.81vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.07-0.82vs Predicted
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8Penn State University0.54-3.04vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.37-3.53vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.63-5.36vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.57+0.04vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-1.19-1.97vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-4.25vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-5.12vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-2.34-2.39vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-4.01-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.18Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.55Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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7.66William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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6.58Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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6.02Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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4.19Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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6.18Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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4.96Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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5.47SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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4.64Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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11.04University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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10.03Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.75Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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8.88SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.61Rutgers University-2.340.0%1st Place
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14.48U. S. Military Academy-4.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Lilyquist | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 17.2% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 13.7% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 9.5% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Karolina Debniak | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 44.1% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 80.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.