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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.54+3.88vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+6.29vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.07+3.28vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.73+4.75vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+1.00vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.44vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.85-3.01vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63-3.30vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.03-2.36vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.40-2.22vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07-4.72vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-1.19-1.95vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-1.33-2.68vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-5.46vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-3.08-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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8.29Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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6.28Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.75Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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6.0Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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5.56SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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3.99Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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4.7Columbia University0.630.2%1st Place
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6.64Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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7.78William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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6.28Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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10.05Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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10.32Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.2U. S. Military Academy-3.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 19.5% | 18.1% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 15.1% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 24.5% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Sarra Salah | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 73.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.