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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.37+4.38vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.85+2.02vs Predicted
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3Penn State University0.54+1.92vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.63+0.75vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+1.05vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.07+0.43vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+1.25vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.07-1.57vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.73-0.36vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.40-2.25vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-1.19-0.95vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.03-5.31vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-4.36vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.33-3.78vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-3.08-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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4.02Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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4.92Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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4.75Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.05Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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6.43Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.25Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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6.43Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.64Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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7.75William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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10.05Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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6.69Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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8.64SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.22Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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13.2U. S. Military Academy-3.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.4% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 18.2% | 17.5% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 13.7% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 12.4% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 23.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarra Salah | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 9.9% | 74.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.