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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.07+5.19vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.85+2.02vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.63+1.71vs Predicted
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4Drexel University-1.19+5.96vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.21+1.00vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.40+1.85vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.73+1.44vs Predicted
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8Penn State University0.54-3.04vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.37-3.49vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-0.03-3.30vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07-4.81vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-3.32vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-4.45vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.33-3.79vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-3.08-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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4.02Christopher Newport University0.850.2%1st Place
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4.71Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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9.96Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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6.0Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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7.85William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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8.44Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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4.96Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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5.51SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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6.7Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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6.19Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.68SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.55Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.21Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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13.21U. S. Military Academy-3.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Lilyquist | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 18.0% | 16.5% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 20.8% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 13.4% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 24.0% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Sarra Salah | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 75.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.