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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+7.08vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.22+4.90vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.17+4.22vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+1.53vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+5.07vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.42+0.49vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.08+4.48vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.00-0.24vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.22vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.77-1.34vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.82-2.20vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.27-1.29vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.91-4.66vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43-3.69vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-2.51vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.81-3.43vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.28-6.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.08Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.9U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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7.22Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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5.53University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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10.07George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.49Tulane University2.420.1%1st Place
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11.48Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.76Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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8.66Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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8.8Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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10.71University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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8.34North Carolina State University1.910.1%1st Place
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10.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.0%1st Place
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12.49Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.57Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.8Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Tanner Kelly | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 13.2% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
| Zander King | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 22.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 22.0% |
| Dylan Balunas | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.