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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+5.48vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.66+3.45vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.42+3.39vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+4.38vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.17+2.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.08+5.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.22+0.06vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.91+0.16vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.79+3.69vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39+0.20vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43-0.75vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-4.11vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.81-0.41vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.28-3.12vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.91-6.74vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.82-7.31vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-6.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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5.45University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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6.39Tulane University2.420.1%1st Place
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8.38Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.1Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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11.66Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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8.16Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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12.69Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.2George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.0%1st Place
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7.89Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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12.59Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.88Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.26North Carolina State University1.910.1%1st Place
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8.69Cornell University1.820.0%1st Place
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10.87University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zander King | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 14.2% |
| Tanner Kelly | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 23.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 5.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 22.2% |
| Dylan Balunas | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Gilda Dondona | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.