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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+8.89vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.66+3.39vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+5.29vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.91+4.30vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.22+1.94vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.17+1.50vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.42-0.67vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.82+0.52vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+2.71vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-2.16vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.90-2.58vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39-1.65vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.28-2.11vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-1.33vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-8.37vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-5.18vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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5.39University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.29Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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8.3North Carolina State University1.910.1%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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7.5Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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6.33Tulane University2.420.1%1st Place
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8.52Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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11.71Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.84Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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8.42Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.35George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.89Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
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12.67Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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6.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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10.82University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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12.5Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 13.4% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Tanner Kelly | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Zander King | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Gilda Dondona | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 12.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% |
| Dylan Balunas | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 23.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 22.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.