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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.75+3.13vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.01+4.45vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.61+8.81vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.63+7.75vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+3.79vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.74+5.56vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.89+3.88vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.27-2.34vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.31+0.43vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.32-4.54vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.61-2.82vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.37+0.65vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.19-3.18vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.83-2.80vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.54-6.64vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.32-6.77vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73-9.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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6.45Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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11.81Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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11.75Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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8.79Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.56Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.88George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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5.66University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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9.43North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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5.46Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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8.18Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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12.65Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.190.0%1st Place
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11.2University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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8.36Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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9.23Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.66St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 20.9% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| Marcus Greco | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 9.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 12.1% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Usher | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| John Wood | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Laura Smith | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 23.2% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Raam Fox | 5.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.