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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.70+3.88vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+4.13vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.52vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.04+2.39vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.13+1.09vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.10+0.23vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.24-3.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.72vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.43-3.73vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-0.15+0.12vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.88+0.05vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.13Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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3.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.09Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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6.23SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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3.61University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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4.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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5.27Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.05Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.43Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Proctor | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 15.4% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 22.1% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 6.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Crane | 20.5% | 18.3% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 15.2% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 30.1% | 30.7% | 20.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 12.9% | 25.5% | 53.6% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 23.8% | 37.0% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.