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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.75+3.18vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.01+4.72vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.31+6.41vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.27+1.89vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+2.64vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.54+2.72vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.32-1.37vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.89+2.76vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.61+3.28vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.19-0.18vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37-1.66vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-3.77vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.32-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.83-2.60vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.37-2.17vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.43-7.00vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.74-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.41North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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5.89University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.64St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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8.72Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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5.63Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.76George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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12.28Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.190.0%1st Place
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9.34Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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8.23Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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9.49Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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12.83Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.0Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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11.65Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 20.9% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Raam Fox | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| John Wood | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 17.2% |
| Jack Guinness | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Patrick Igoe | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 10.1% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 25.7% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Peter Stewart | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.