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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.32+4.57vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.27+3.79vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+4.96vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.75+0.45vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+1.64vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.37+3.52vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.31+2.58vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.37+4.70vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.32+0.70vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.19-0.09vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.89+0.29vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.61+0.18vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.43-3.84vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.25-4.05vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.61-6.63vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.83-4.52vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.54-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.79University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.96St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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6.64Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.52Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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9.58North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.7Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.7Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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9.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.190.0%1st Place
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11.29George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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12.18Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.16Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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9.95Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.37Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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11.48University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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8.73Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wood | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 11.2% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Raam Fox | 6.1% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.8% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Benjamin Usher | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 26.5% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| Jack Guinness | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 19.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.