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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.75+3.14vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.37+6.84vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.61+8.77vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.32+5.16vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+1.43vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.27-0.15vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.74+4.33vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.19+1.45vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.32-3.30vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73-2.48vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.61-2.82vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.54-3.67vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.89-2.07vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.37-1.22vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.63-3.31vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.67-4.36vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.31-7.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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8.84Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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11.77Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.16Old Dominion University1.320.1%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.85University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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11.33Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.190.1%1st Place
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5.7Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.52St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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8.18Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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10.93George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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12.78Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.69Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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9.25North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 21.2% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Jack Guinness | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| John Wood | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Raam Fox | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 24.4% |
| Marcus Greco | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 13.9% |
| Marco Welch | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.8% |
| Benjamin Usher | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.