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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.04+5.37vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.70+2.83vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.24+0.67vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.43+1.49vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.13+1.11vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-2.51vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.11-0.90vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.75vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.10-2.92vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-0.15+0.12vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.88+0.06vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.83Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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3.67University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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5.49Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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6.11Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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3.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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6.1Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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6.08SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.06Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.43Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Reynolds | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Proctor | 10.0% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 19.3% | 17.4% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 21.6% | 18.3% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.2% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.5% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 30.2% | 31.0% | 20.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 25.2% | 53.8% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 23.7% | 37.5% | 25.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.