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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.75+3.28vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.27+3.71vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+4.79vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.89+7.05vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.61+3.05vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.32-0.18vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.19+2.94vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-1.34vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.74+2.68vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.61+1.95vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37+1.89vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University0.98-1.36vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.43-3.97vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.32-4.48vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.77-7.37vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.54-7.49vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.67-5.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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5.71University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.79St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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11.05George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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8.05Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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5.82Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.190.0%1st Place
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6.66Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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11.68Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
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11.95Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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12.89Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.64North Carolina State University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.03Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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9.52Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.63Northeastern University1.770.1%1st Place
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8.51Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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11.84University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 19.4% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 11.5% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Raam Fox | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| John Wood | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Guinness | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 12.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 26.5% |
| Ryan Brelage | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Gavin Hudson | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Marco Welch | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.