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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.58vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.24+1.68vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+3.23vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.13+2.19vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.70-0.18vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.72vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.43-1.66vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04-1.80vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.10-2.91vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-0.15+0.12vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.88+0.05vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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3.68University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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6.23Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.19Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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4.82Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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4.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.34Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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6.2Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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6.09SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.05Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.43Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 20.3% | 17.1% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 18.9% | 20.3% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| David Coplon | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Proctor | 11.3% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 14.0% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 30.3% | 30.5% | 20.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 12.7% | 25.5% | 53.6% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 23.1% | 37.3% | 25.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.