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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.24+2.83vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.43+3.53vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+3.29vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.70+1.03vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55+0.25vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.04+0.44vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.70vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.10-1.83vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-5.55vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-0.88+1.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-0.15-0.75vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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5.53Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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6.29Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.03Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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5.25Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.17SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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3.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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11.02Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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10.47Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Crane | 17.6% | 17.4% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Charles Proctor | 8.3% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 18.6% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Morrill | 21.5% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 14.0% | 25.1% | 51.7% |
| Phillip Weigand | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 28.0% | 32.4% | 22.4% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 23.0% | 37.8% | 25.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.