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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.24+2.83vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.70+2.98vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.43+2.54vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-0.39vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.11+1.28vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.60vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04-0.69vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.10-1.79vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.55-3.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-0.15+0.15vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.88+0.07vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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4.98Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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5.54Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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3.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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6.28Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.31Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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6.21SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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5.15Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.07Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.46Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Crane | 18.1% | 15.7% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Proctor | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Morrill | 18.4% | 20.9% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 14.8% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 31.5% | 30.3% | 20.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 13.3% | 25.3% | 53.7% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 24.4% | 37.1% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.