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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.65vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.57vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.54+6.46vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.79+0.99vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.35+1.33vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69-0.63vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.54+5.73vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.85+3.61vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+1.29vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.57vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.63+1.61vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.06-4.36vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-3.33vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.61-2.45vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.39-6.15vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-3.02vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.07-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.46Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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4.99Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.33Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.37Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.73Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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11.61Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.29Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.61Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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13.2SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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12.55Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.98Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.08Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 14.1% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.7% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 12.9% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.3% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 15.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 21.9% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.