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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.65vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+5.54vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+2.43vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+5.08vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.35+1.37vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.79-0.90vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63+5.48vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.83vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.85+2.66vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.20vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.39-1.15vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.37+1.62vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.24-2.84vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-9.63vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.07-0.80vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.54-3.13vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-3.10vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.61-5.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.54University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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5.43Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.08Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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6.37Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.1Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.48Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.62SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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4.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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14.2Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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12.87Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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13.9Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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12.38Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 14.1% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.1% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 16.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 17.4% | 17.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 12.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 20.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.