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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.69vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.64vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.35+3.56vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.29vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.79+0.02vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69-0.62vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.39+2.75vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.24+2.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.90vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.63+2.65vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.61+1.61vs Predicted
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12Penn State University0.54+1.15vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.84vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.54-5.05vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.85-3.37vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.13vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.07-2.65vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.37-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.56Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.29University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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5.02Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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5.38Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.75George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.23Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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12.65Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.61Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.15Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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6.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.95Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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11.63Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.87Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.35Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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13.17SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 13.6% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.2% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.1% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 20.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 25.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.