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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.35+5.59vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+3.45vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.79+2.19vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.44vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.34vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.48vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.68vs Predicted
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8Penn State University0.54+4.71vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.54+0.16vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-0.05vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.21+2.91vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-0.77vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.63-0.67vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.61-1.69vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.24-4.71vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.37-2.59vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.07-2.69vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.85-6.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.45Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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4.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.52U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.71Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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9.16Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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9.95George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.91Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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12.33Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.31Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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10.29Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.41SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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14.31Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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11.53Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 16.5% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.4% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 20.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 16.6% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 25.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.