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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.67vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+3.43vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.51vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.81vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.79+0.04vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+3.80vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.75vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.85+3.68vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+1.28vs Predicted
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10Penn State University0.54+3.00vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.35-4.47vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.63+0.80vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.61-0.55vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.21-0.41vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.06-7.71vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.07-1.72vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.54-7.63vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.37-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.43Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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4.51U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.04Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.8George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.68Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.0Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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6.53Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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12.8Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.45Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.59Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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14.28Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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9.37Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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13.21SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 14.8% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.7% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 19.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 25.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.