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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.29vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.79+2.81vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.35+3.14vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.08vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+0.02vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.54+2.95vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.33vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.07+5.20vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.86vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.72vs Predicted
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11Penn State University0.54+1.21vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.24-2.17vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.32vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.85-2.76vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.61-3.15vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.90vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.63-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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4.81Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.14Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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5.02Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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8.95Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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13.2Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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4.28U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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12.21Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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9.83Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.68SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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11.24Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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11.85Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.1Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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11.85Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 16.7% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 12.9% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 22.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 16.7% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 11.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 15.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 18.9% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.