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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+4.42vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+4.07vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.26+6.87vs Predicted
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4Penn State University0.96+6.60vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.47+0.45vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+6.47vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+0.35vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-1.82vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-3.14vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.08+0.55vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.81+0.38vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.54-6.44vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.08-2.82vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.01-7.15vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.06-0.96vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech-0.36-1.08vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.45-4.45vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.80-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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6.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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9.87George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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10.6Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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5.45University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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12.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.35Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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5.86Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.55Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.38Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.56Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.18Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.85Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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14.04SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.92Virginia Tech-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.55Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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15.72Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 11.8% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Jackson McAliley | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 6.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 12.5% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| Daniel Hale | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 20.9% | 24.3% |
| Eva DeCastro | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 19.3% | 41.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.