Race 4A

delaware-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sophie Grigg 11.8% 15.0% 17.3% 15.5% 12.9% 13.8% 7.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Robert Riecker 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 4.8% 6.5% 9.7% 12.1% 15.3% 18.7% 16.4% 6.4% 0.0%
Hannah Arey 5.3% 5.7% 6.6% 9.0% 10.7% 12.9% 14.0% 14.6% 12.2% 7.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Charlotte Stillman 14.0% 16.0% 18.3% 16.6% 13.1% 10.5% 6.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Olivia Coffill 7.8% 9.0% 10.2% 9.6% 13.9% 13.8% 12.8% 11.3% 7.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Ethan Deutsch 4.0% 5.8% 8.0% 8.0% 10.4% 12.5% 15.0% 14.6% 11.9% 7.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Rose von Eckartsberg 12.9% 14.7% 13.7% 16.6% 13.5% 10.3% 8.6% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Iain Shand 36.4% 24.6% 16.2% 9.8% 7.4% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alice Kilkelly 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.5% 4.0% 4.4% 6.0% 9.9% 16.4% 29.5% 21.8% 0.0%
Robert Riecker 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 4.8% 6.5% 9.7% 12.1% 15.3% 18.7% 16.4% 6.4% 0.0%
Mac Fitzgerald 2.4% 3.6% 3.4% 6.6% 6.4% 5.8% 13.2% 14.8% 19.9% 16.8% 7.1% 0.0%
Ella Dieterlen 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 3.1% 3.2% 5.1% 8.0% 16.3% 60.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.