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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.70+4.04vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.24+1.79vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.60vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.11+2.34vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.04+1.39vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.43-0.42vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.55-1.81vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.10-1.82vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-0.15+0.14vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.88+0.06vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.33-1.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.04Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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3.79University of Vermont3.240.2%1st Place
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3.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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6.34Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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5.58Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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5.19Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.18SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.06Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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10.45Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Proctor | 10.7% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 17.8% | 18.7% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 20.6% | 18.1% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Martin McDonald | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 12.7% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 31.4% | 30.0% | 20.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 13.4% | 25.4% | 53.7% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 23.1% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.