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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.52vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+6.73vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.10+3.36vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+2.03vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.59+6.60vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.33-0.26vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.81+0.36vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.44+0.58vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.12-2.53vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.22+2.90vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.59-2.66vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-4.19vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.55vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.31-1.22vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.25-2.19vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.69-1.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-8.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.36Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.03University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.6Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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5.74Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.58Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.47Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.9University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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8.34Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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10.45Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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12.78Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.81Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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14.4Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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8.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 18.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| Chase Decker | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 37.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.