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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.32vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+3.54vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.96vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12+2.43vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64-0.39vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.59+2.42vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.20vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.23-2.10vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.67-0.88vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-1.23vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.22+1.97vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.59-0.25vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.81-5.42vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.25-1.05vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-4.63vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University1.31-3.25vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.69-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.54Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.43Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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4.61Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.42Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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8.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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5.9University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.12Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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12.97University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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11.75Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.95Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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10.37Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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12.75Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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14.38Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.1% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 7.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 14.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.