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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.38+3.43vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+2.19vs Predicted
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3San Diego State University2.11+2.27vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.55+0.15vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.25vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University1.58+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.47+0.20vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.32-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.65+0.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.18+1.18vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.64-1.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.51vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands0.42-2.62vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-1.12+0.05vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-3.15vs Predicted
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16University of Oregon-1.01-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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4.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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5.27San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.15Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.25California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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6.88Western Washington University1.580.1%1st Place
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7.2University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Washington1.320.1%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.0%1st Place
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11.18University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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9.64Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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10.38California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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14.05Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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11.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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13.99University of Oregon-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 16.5% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 17.9% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 16.6% | 15.9% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Leif Hauge | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 6.1% |
| Juan Casal | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 23.6% | 40.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 18.5% | 15.5% | 8.4% |
| Rowan Clinch | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 26.3% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.