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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.13vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.10+7.65vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.85+3.85vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.23+1.80vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.64+2.48vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.08-2.47vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.48-1.91vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48+2.77vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.03-2.77vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-0.26vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.75+0.47vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-0.46-1.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-5.29vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.43-6.00vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.08-0.59vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University-1.98-1.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.2%1st Place
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9.65University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.85Western Washington University0.850.1%1st Place
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5.8San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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3.53Stanford University2.080.2%1st Place
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5.09University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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10.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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6.23University of Hawaii1.030.1%1st Place
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9.74California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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11.47Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.84University of Oregon-0.460.0%1st Place
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7.71University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Washington0.430.0%1st Place
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14.41California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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14.3Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 17.4% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Adam Turloff | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 23.4% | 17.7% | 17.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 13.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% |
| Everett McAvoy | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 20.5% | 14.5% | 4.3% |
| Emily Avey | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 2.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Miller | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brent Lin | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 25.7% | 46.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 26.2% | 41.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.