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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.00+5.36vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.27+7.34vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+5.95vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.25+5.55vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.59+2.94vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.64+2.09vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-1.73vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.23+1.41vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.48-0.22vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.03+0.24vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-1.67vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.85-0.95vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.02vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-6.46vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.40-6.14vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-5.73vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.38-7.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.34Fordham University1.270.1%1st Place
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8.95George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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9.55Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.94Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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8.09Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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5.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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9.41Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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8.78University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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10.24Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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9.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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11.05Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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8.86Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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10.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.04University of Vermont1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Skylor Sweet | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Jensen | 14.1% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Boris Bialer | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| James Kopack | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 30.6% |
| Luke Zylinski | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Brayden Benesch | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.