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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.00+5.02vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.59+5.63vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.83vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College1.64+3.61vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.32+3.66vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.40+2.64vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-1.99vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+0.60vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.23+5.36vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.27-1.12vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.25-1.71vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39-3.45vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University1.23-3.65vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.03-3.90vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.85-4.34vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California0.32-3.38vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-9.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.63Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.61Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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5.01St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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8.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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14.36SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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9.29Boston University1.250.1%1st Place
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8.55George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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9.35Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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10.1Cornell University1.030.0%1st Place
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10.66Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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12.62University of Southern California0.320.0%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Jordan Vieira | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Brayden Benesch | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 15.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Kopack | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 45.3% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Jake Weinstein | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Boris Bialer | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 6.7% |
| Cameron Berry | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.