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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+4.35vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.44+5.10vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.37+4.49vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+3.30vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.47+1.96vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.93+3.45vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.57+3.66vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-0.33vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-0.02vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.63+0.30vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.62-4.29vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University-0.27+1.50vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.89-3.47vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.92-4.59vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.00vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.08-7.33vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.06-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.35Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.1Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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7.49Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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7.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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6.96University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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10.66University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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7.67St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
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10.3Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.71Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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13.5Northwestern University-0.270.0%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.41Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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8.67Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 14.2% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Luke Harris | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Joey Richardson | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Marcus Greco | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| George Warfel | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 34.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Calvin Marsh | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Luke Barker | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 24.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.