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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+6.12vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.90+3.51vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.37+4.63vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.57+6.80vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+2.22vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.93+3.56vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.92+2.47vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+2.96vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44-1.48vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-2.15vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.44+0.41vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-3.10vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.08-4.11vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.06-0.81vs Predicted
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15George Washington University0.89-5.45vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.63-5.33vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.62-10.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.12University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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5.51Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.63Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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10.8University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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7.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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9.56Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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9.47Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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10.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.52Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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11.41Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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8.89Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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13.19SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.55George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.67Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.75Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 13.4% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Calvin Marsh | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% |
| Joey Richardson | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Luke Barker | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 30.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.