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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+4.48vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+5.21vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.44+4.32vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.37+3.70vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.63+5.36vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28+2.18vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+1.89vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.44+3.05vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.92+0.60vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.62-3.42vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.89-1.25vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.06+1.02vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.93-3.44vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.69vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-6.23vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.57-5.09vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California1.47-9.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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7.32Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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7.7Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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10.36Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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8.18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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11.05Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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9.6Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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6.58Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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9.75George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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13.02SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.56Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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8.77Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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10.91University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 14.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Joey Richardson | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 12.9% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| Luke Barker | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 30.6% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% |
| Luke Harris | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.