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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+4.34vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28+5.72vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University0.89+6.32vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.63+6.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.21+2.87vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.47+1.22vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.44+0.23vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43-0.93vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+2.15vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.93-0.94vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.08-2.31vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.92-2.87vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.62-6.48vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.09vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.57-4.45vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.89-6.62vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University-0.27-3.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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9.32Northeastern University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.36Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.210.1%1st Place
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7.22University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.23Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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9.06Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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8.69Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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9.13Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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6.52Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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12.91SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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9.38George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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13.48Northwestern University-0.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 14.8% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| Marcus Greco | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 6.4% |
| Tomas Riccio | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Luke Harris | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Joshua Bendura | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Luke Barker | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 17.3% | 23.8% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| George Warfel | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 31.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.