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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+4.50vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.27+6.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.21+5.33vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.44+3.52vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.89+4.46vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.62+0.88vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+0.42vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.44+3.14vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.92+0.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+1.17vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.47-3.47vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.63-1.38vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.89-3.20vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.93-4.36vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.88vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.08-7.08vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-8.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.5Fordham University1.900.2%1st Place
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8.08University of Vermont1.270.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.210.1%1st Place
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7.52Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.46Northeastern University0.890.0%1st Place
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6.88Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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11.14Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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9.76Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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11.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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10.62Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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9.8George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.64Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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13.12SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.92Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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8.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 15.2% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Tomas Riccio | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.9% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% |
| Luke Harris | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 3.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Luke Barker | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 32.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 5.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.