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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+6.16vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28+5.98vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.44+4.42vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.45+3.43vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+2.89vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+5.47vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+0.49vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.21+0.22vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.62-2.12vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.63+0.59vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37-3.04vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.08-3.08vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.93-3.30vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.06-0.70vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.44-3.56vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.89-6.23vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.99-7.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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7.42Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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7.43Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Vermont1.270.1%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.210.1%1st Place
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6.88Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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10.59Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.96Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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8.92Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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9.7Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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13.3SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.44Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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9.77George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.38Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Duncan Craine | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Calvin Marsh | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 13.2% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Tomas Riccio | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Luke Barker | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 32.1% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 14.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.